General Kevin Chilton Speaks on Deterrence in the 21st Century

As technology rapidly advances, leading us to broader frontiers in space and the online world, deterrence in our modern era faces a unique set of questions and challenges. General Kevin Chilton explored the history and evolution of deterrence in his recent lecture, "Deterrence in the 21st Century: From Nuclear, To Space, To Cyberspace,” as part of the Tech Policy Lab Distinguished Lecture series.

General Chilton drew on his 34 years of experience in the U.S. Air Force. During part of his Air Force career he served with NASA and was a Command Astronaut Pilot and flew 3 Space Shuttle missions, and retired in 2011 as the Commander of U.S. Strategic Command.

In laying the foundation and need for deterrence, Chilton explained that “the highest calling in the military is to deter warfare.” Both an art and science, deterrence is the act of preventing a particular act or behavior from occurring and often results in a strategy of threats to affect the decision maker. The party being deterred must understand the redlines, believe the threat is credible, know that they will be attributed if they complete the act and believe that if the deterrent is unleashed, it will cause damage, or deny them their desired outcomes.

Chilton then took the audience through the history of nuclear deterrent strategy. The U.S. strategy, essentially unchanged since the 1950s, has held its purpose over the years. From the cold war to the current administration, Chilton discussed the actions and relationships between the U.S. and other countries including Japan, Cuba, Russia and of increasing concern, China. While deterrence remains in balance with Russia, Chilton explained that no one is certain what China fears and the country poses an existential threat.

He went on to discuss a hypothetical situation between the U.S. and China to illustrate the threat to U.S. assets in space, and then shifted to cyberspace. “The issue with developing cyber deterrent strategy is today all sides seem to be pretty loathe about showing their offensive capability,” said Chilton. This can lead to miscalculations as one side is unsure of the other side’s strengths.

Bringing the lecture to a close, Chilton explained that while he didn’t know all of the answers to the important questions raised by deterrence in cyberspace, some of the best people to address them were in the room. How we apply deterrent strategy theory to the space and cyber domains, Chilton emphasized, is critical because our calling is to deter, not to fight.

About the Tech Policy Lab

The Tech Policy Lab is an interdisciplinary collaboration that aims to strengthen and inform technology policy through research, education, and thought leadership. The Lab brings together experts from the University of Washington’s School of Law, Information School and Computer Science & Engineering School, as well as other units on campus.

The Tech Policy Lab’s Distinguished Lecture Series brings to Seattle individuals that the public might not otherwise have an opportunity to hear. In addition to General Chilton, other speakers have included Jeroen van den Hoven, professor of ethics and technology at Delft University of Technology, Latanya Sweeney, professor and director of the Data Privacy Lab at Harvard University, and Anthony Dyson, the noted roboticist who built R2D2.